I wanted to be able to use this in clinical decision-making, so I asked an epidemiologist friend for an official source of year-by-year mortality probability. The idea is to be able to say: "We shouldn't put this pt through a prostate biopsy, since at his age, his 5-yr survival (even regardless of his cancer) would only be 'x' percent." Well... I worked HARD and LONG to make these into clinically useful tables, and I think others (at least clinical folks with a bent to data) will find them really cool. Here's my output, truncated for PalmPilot carrying. The actual spreadsheets are available if you're interested. Steps including: - scraping the data out of the Acrobat file, - converting it to columns, - calculating the resid+current=total lifespan, - doing the calculation for proportionate mortality, from raw data until age 90, - then I started using the annual mortality of each individual age - until I had to repeat the portionate mortality rate for age 99 again and again and again Feel free to share these wherever. WM Median Survival Prob Lifespn 1-yr 5-yr 10-yr 1 75.5 99% 99% 99% 6 76.1 100% 100% 100% 11 76.2 100% 100% 99% 16 76.2 100% 100% 99% 21 76.5 100% 99% 99% 26 76.8 100% 99% 99% 31 77.1 100% 99% 98% 36 77.5 100% 99% 98% 41 77.8 100% 99% 97% 46 78.3 100% 98% 95% 51 78.9 99% 97% 93% 56 79.7 99% 95% 88% 61 80.7 99% 93% 82% 66 82.1 98% 88% 73% 71 83.8 97% 83% 62% 76 86 95% 75% 47% 81 88.5 93% 62% 29% 83 89.6 91% 56% 23% 85 90.8 89% 50% 17% 87 92.1 87% 43% 12% 89 93.5 85% 37% 8% 91 95 82% 31% 3% 93 96.5 79% 25% 2% 95 98.1 76% 20% 2% 97 99.7 72% 16% 98 100.6 71% 15% 99 101.4 69% 14% 100 102.3 67% 14% BM Median Survival Prob Lifespn 1-yr 5-yr 10-yr 1 68.6 98% 98% 98% 6 69.9 100% 100% 100% 11 70 100% 100% 99% 16 70.1 100% 99% 98% 21 70.5 100% 99% 97% 26 71.1 100% 99% 97% 31 71.6 100% 99% 97% 36 72.2 100% 98% 95% 41 72.9 100% 97% 93% 46 73.7 99% 95% 89% 51 74.9 99% 94% 85% 56 76.4 98% 91% 79% 61 78.1 98% 87% 73% 66 80.3 97% 84% 65% 71 82.5 96% 77% 54% 76 85.2 94% 70% 40% 81 88.1 91% 58% 26% 83 89.4 90% 53% 22% 85 90.8 88% 48% 17% 87 92.2 86% 43% 14% 89 93.7 85% 39% 11% 91 95.3 83% 34% 5% 93 96.9 81% 30% 4% 95 98.6 78% 26% 4% 97 100.3 76% 22% 98 101.1 75% 21% 99 102 74% 21% 100 102.9 73% 20% WF Median Survival Prob Lifespn 1-yr 5-yr 10-yr 1 81 99% 99% 99% 6 81.5 100% 100% 100% 11 81.6 100% 100% 100% 16 81.6 100% 100% 100% 21 81.8 100% 100% 100% 26 81.9 100% 100% 99% 31 82 100% 100% 99% 36 82.2 100% 100% 99% 41 82.4 100% 99% 98% 46 82.7 100% 99% 97% 51 83 100% 98% 95% 56 83.6 100% 97% 93% 61 84.3 99% 95% 89% 66 85.3 99% 93% 83% 71 86.6 98% 89% 74% 76 88.2 97% 83% 60% 81 90.1 95% 72% 41% 83 91.1 94% 67% 34% 85 92.1 92% 60% 26% 87 93.2 90% 54% 20% 89 94.4 88% 47% 14% 91 95.7 86% 40% 5% 93 97.1 83% 33% 4% 95 98.6 80% 27% 3% 97 100.2 77% 22% 98 101 75% 20% 99 101.8 73% 19% 100 102.6 71% 19% BF Median Survival Prob Lifespn 1-yr 5-yr 10-yr 1 75.8 99% 99% 98% 6 76.9 100% 100% 100% 11 77 100% 100% 100% 16 77.1 100% 100% 99% 21 77.2 100% 100% 99% 26 77.4 100% 99% 99% 31 77.7 100% 99% 98% 36 78 100% 99% 97% 41 78.5 100% 98% 96% 46 79.1 100% 98% 94% 51 79.8 99% 97% 92% 56 80.8 99% 95% 88% 61 82 99% 93% 83% 66 83.4 98% 90% 75% 71 85.1 97% 84% 66% 76 87.3 96% 79% 54% 81 89.7 94% 68% 38% 83 90.8 93% 63% 31% 85 92 91% 58% 25% 87 93.2 90% 52% 20% 89 94.5 88% 47% 15% 91 95.9 86% 41% 7% 93 97.4 84% 35% 6% 95 98.9 81% 30% 5% 97 100.5 79% 25% 98 101.3 77% 24% 99 102.1 76% 23% 100 102.9 74% 23% Data source: Life tables from NCHS: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpubd/mortabs/lewk3.htm (NCHS is the official producer of these #s which are published annually)